"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."
-Steven Pinker, author of "How the Mind Works"We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will[...]

Shows how our flawed strategies for perceiving risk influence our lives, often with unforeseen and sometimes - tragic consequences. This book uncovers one of the central puzzles of our time: why are the safest people in history living in a culture of fear?[...]

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.[...]